OK, I'm feeling suitably smug after the Germans indeed ground out an undeserved win last night without playing especially well. Well played Turkey for never knowing when they're beaten - until the final whistle obviously. With a half decent keeper who knows what may have happened - think David Seaman vs Ronaldinho free kick in 2002.
Anyway there's another game to look at yet, so let's talk about the Russians. I'm at a loss as to why Hiddink hasn't landed the Chelsea job yet, as his Russia team appear to play the football that Abramovich wants to see. Comfortable in possession and technically gifted, with a tough spine, I think the Russians have been a match for any team in the tournament. That is apart from their nervous first display against tomorrow's opponents, Spain. Shouldn't be a shock to anyone that has ever seen them play previously, or the ease with which the Zenit St Petersburg team dismantled Bayern and Rangers en route to the Uefa Cup final.
Pavlyuchenko up front is a threat, and can finish (sometimes), and it'll be a good battle with Marchena and the ever-impressive Puyol. If he gets the service from Arshavin, which should be nailed on, he'll get chances. Particularly now Barca have now made a bid for the little maestro. The two attacking full backs Anyukov and Zhirkov look ready to do a Thuram or Grosso and weigh in with an important goal, and the midfield is steady if unspectacular, mashalled by the skipper Semak. The doubt is at the back where Kolodin should be kept up the other end taking 45yd pot shots. Villa and Torres will run the two lumbering centre backs around and may cause problems. The jury's still out on the keeper Akinfeyeev, who's apparently great on Championship Manager, but appears to feel he has an unfair advantage using his hands, so elects to even things up by punching anything heading his way.
The Spanish have been many peoples tip (including mine) from the start. On the basis that they have some great players and "it's about time they won something". Doesn't work for England fellas. Villa and Torres haven't really fired together since the first game, against tomorrow's opponents Russia, but still remain a massive threat, particularly when they run at the Russian back four, and cut them apart with movement. They need to improve the link up play that's seen them hitting the first defender with every cross since that first game.
Fabregas ran the Italy game when he came on, and must be given a chance to start. If he can fire the midfield, probably at the expense of Iniesta or Xavi, then the Spanish have a chance. At the back much will reply on Puyol and Marchena marshalling Arshavin and Pavlyuchenko. The latter will be easier, and I can see Marchena being left that job, which means poor Carles or Ramos might be left chasing Arshavin across the width of the pitch.
With all that in mind, plus the pressure factor of being favourites, logic suggests the Spanish bubble will burst tomorrow, with a narrow Russia win without the need for pens. These are two of the best footballing sides in the competition so it's a shame that one of them will have to go on to be bored to death by Germany in the final.
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Being an England fan I am torn about tonight's game. I usually like to pluck for the underdog in any sporting event especially football as it lends an air of excitement and anticipation that a bulldozing from the firm favourites doesn't deliver.
But tonight both teams are underdogs in their own way.
No one thought Russia would be here in the semi's (despite being steered by one of the best managers of the modern game) and the fact that they lack a dearth of big name players had everyone thinking that they would be hard to break down but ultimately cannon fodder for the bigger teams. Not so, but there is still a feeling that they might be punching above their weight being this far into a tournament which on paper was full of quality sides.
Spain on the other hand are also underdogs in that they are perennial underachievers. As an England fan I can also see parallels between them and our national side. Two very good front men who don't seem able to fully click when playing together up front, the sum total of the team not being equal to it's parts in big games, the surprise omission of quality players in the starting 11 (for Fabregas read any number of bizarre team picks by a host of England managers), a coach who seems intent on grabbing headlines both on and off the pitch which has led to some PR nightmares for the Spanish FA and distraction for the squad, and finally an overriding sense of 'I hope we win' rather 'I know we'll win'. Three quarters of the battle is in the head not the foot. Ask spot kicker Stuart Pearce - he knows that on a training pitch he'll score 49 out of 50 penalties but cometh the big stage, cometh the nerves. I'm not sure that Spain really think they can win this tournament and the spectre of the numerous failed national campaigns looms heavily over the players. Score 2 goals against the Germans and rather than dropping their heads, they move up a gear and fight for the victory they feel is rightfully theirs - regardless of the mundane and workmanlike manner they employ to achieve this. Score 2 against Spain and I think that you will see heads dropping, players conceding the victory in their heads and a whole rash of silly bookings as desperation sets in.
So, I'm not sure who to back tonight. I think I'll judge it on the first 20-30 minutes and make my decision based on who is trying to take the game by the scruff of the neck. I can't help feeling that the best player on the pitch tonight could well be Arshavin and I think given space, he will provide the quality balls needed for the Russians to bundle the ball into the net. That said, if Spain click up front, there are goals for them as well. I think that both teams should go for broke and take a leaf from Turkey's book. Let's not play for extra time as the losing side will undoubtedly be castigated in their national press. Go out with a bang like Turkey and at the very least grab a headline tomorrow which includes words such as 'brave', 'courageous' and 'unlucky'.
May the best team win.
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